Why to Love Your Bad Luck
Plus: Shipwrecks, ankle sprains, and Cormac McCarthy
In 1912, Adelaide Childs sprained her ankle.
It saved her husband’s life.
Childs’ husband was Henry Clay Frick, a Pittsburgh steel baron. In the spring of 1912, Frick and Childs enjoyed a lavish trip to Italy, which was set to end with a flourish.
The couple planned to sail back to New York City in style, booking two first-class tickets on the most luxurious ocean liner ever built.
Then, Childs sprained her ankle.
Lamenting their bad luck, the pair decided to delay their trip home so Childs could heal up.
A few days later, the Titanic sank.
1,517 people died.
In his book “No Country for Old Men,” Cormac McCarthy wrote:
“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.”
There’s this old adage:
“In life, you never regret the things you did. You regret the things you didn’t do.”
I buy it.
I think most people do, too.
But have you ever challenged that idea?
Why do you regret the things you didn’t do?
Simple: You think you missed out.
But regret is sly.
In psychology, there’s this concept called “counterfactual thinking”.
Counterfactual thinking is when our brains imagine hypothetical scenarios about what might have happened differently in a certain event.
It usually starts with something like:
• “What if …
• “If only …
• “I should have …”
It’s our brains deciding how X would have shaken out if Y would have happened.
But Y never happened.
So how would we know what would have taken place?
Counterfactual thinking exists in two forms: downward and upward.
Downward counterfactual thinking plays out how a hypothetical situation could have been worse.
Upward counterfactual thinking plays out how a hypothetical situation could have been better.
When it comes to things we perceive as “bad luck,” we’re more inclined to engage in upward counterfactual thinking.
For instance, what do you think Childs thought when she sprained her ankle?
“This is the worst. I’m in pain and now we’re going to miss sailing on the most beautiful ship in the world. We were going to be in First Class! Now it’s all ruined.”
Or
“Thank goodness. That ship is going down. We probably would’ve died.”
Regardless of whether you engage in upward or downward counterfactual thinking, you need to remember one key word:
“Counterfactual.”
By definition, creating hypothetical scenarios based on events that either never happened or have yet to happen has no basis in fact. No roots in reality. No tie to truth.
It’s fake. Fabricated. Counterfactual.
You don’t know what would have happened.
You’ll never know.
You’re just guessing.
So is your bad luck really bad luck?
Maybe.
Sometimes, it probably is. Law of averages and all that.
But you know what else the law of averages says?
Sometimes, your bad luck is the best possible luck you could’ve asked for.
You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.